CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26915/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T04:07Z (-12.86h, +14.68h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/09/14 07:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 22:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
POS Difference: 8:20
POS Midpoint: 17:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.6
Travel Time: ~6.6 * 10:25 = 68:42

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-17T04:07Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 5%

Lead Time: 57.30 hour(s)
Difference: -2.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-09-14T16:35Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement